[ShuiMei]

Originally Posted by Haruhi

I really want Rukia to end up with Ichigo, though Renji might have the upper hand right now since those two knew each other from the very beginning when they were first kids thus both of them having a much stronger bond than with Ichigo.

I don't think Renji's had the "upper hand" for quite some time. Despite being childhood friends, up until recently they had been estranged for quite some time. When Rukia was adopted by Byakuya into the Kuchiki she had essentially broken ties with Renji and had not seen him again until he showed up in the living world with Byakuya to bring her back, which was not the most pleasant of reunions. Then considering that Renji spent much of the Soul Society arc trying to defeat Ichigo instead of actively trying to prevent Rukia's execution, and only stepped up once Ichigo had beaten some sense into him, I would say that only after Ichigo had defeated Renji did the two really start to get back on the path of re-establishing their friendship.

Of course, by that time Ichigo had already come into Rukia's life and now Renji's place, while not useless, is certainly overshadowed by Ichigo's presence. When Renji encouraged Rukia's adoption, he effectively let her go. With that, she endured forty years in a cold household with Byakuya and had very few friends or people she could turn to for support. She did have Kaien, who was a wonderful figure of support and comfort for Rukia during those lonely years, but we all remember what happened there, and after he had died once again Rukia had no one to turn to. Renji wasn't there for her when she needed someone the most after Kaien's death, she had to overcome it alone, and even still the remnants of that event has left deep scars in her heart.

When Rukia meets Ichigo it changes her life. Having few opportunities to strike out on her own and with a huge inferiority complex, she takes it upon herself out of necessity to mentor Ichigo and guide him through his new responsibilities as her substitute. This relationship helps Rukia grow immensely as she's able to establish a close relationship with someone, something she hasn't been able to do in a long time. With Ichigo there's no formality about her being a noble, after all he has no idea about her noble status, and there's no dishonesty or lack of confidence in her abilities either. Byakuya secretly held Rukia back in fear of her safety for years, thus creating a inferiority/insecurity complex in her, but we never get the sense of that when she's with Ichigo in those early chapters. Instead, we get a confident Rukia who instructs and guides Ichigo and as time progresses, it becomes less a mentorship and moreso a partnership as they create a team-dynamic based on mutual trust. Ichigo's trust in Rukia helped her build up her confidence despite her lack of powers, and with that she establishes a comfortable friendship with him.

When we see Rukia's flashbacks with Kaien we see her note his warm, friendly, informal demeanour as something she desired the most. It was comforting for her to have a normal superior-subordinate relationship after she started living life as a noble. And so, we see this again when she establishes her relationship with Ichigo, instead, rather than a superior-subordinate relationship, it is moreso a relationship between equals, partners, who can hit and insult each other one moment and comfort and support each other the next. It is when she realizes that the life she has made for herself in the living world with Ichigo is nice and comfortable that she realizes she is in danger of getting too attached and takes it upon herself to leave. With that, we can see that Ichigo has already left a large imprint on Rukia's life, something that only becomes greater as the series progresses.

Renji certainly had more history with Rukia, but I would not say that he had a stronger bond with Rukia than Ichigo does. What Renji has with Rukia are memories of growing up and surviving together, they're precious memories between childhood friends but what Rukia has with Ichigo are life-changing experiences. It's obvious that Rukia changed Ichigo's life, but he's changed hers as well, and I think Renji recognizes that, which is why I don't think he's as great an obstacle as some make him out to be. Renji may harbour more than platonic feelings for Rukia but he does not act on them and has been accepting and respectful of the relationship Rukia has with Ichigo.

Damn that was longer than I originally intended, but it's been a long time since I've posted here so I'll justify myself with that...

On the topic itself, I don't think Rukia has to "end up" with anyone, but if we're going to speculate on romantic outcomes, I would say Ichigo is the best-suited and most-likely. I must admit that have a soft spot for Byakuya/Rukia as well and am not diametrically opposed to Renji/Rukia, but Ichigo is certainly the "frontrunner."