US presidential race reaching a turning point

[Simulacrum]

http://www.mcclatchydc.com/251/story/46457.html

Barack Obama has lost ground among some of his strongest bases of support, including young people, women, Democrats and independents, according to a new ATV/Zogby poll.

The Illinois Democrat has also lost some support among African-Americans and Hispanics, where his lead over Republican John McCain has shrunk, and among Catholics, where he's lost his lead.

The net result, pollster John Zogby found, is a race that's neck and neck, with McCain supported by 42 percent; Obama by 41 percent; Libertarian Bob Barr by 2 percent; and independent Ralph Nader by 2 percent. Another 13 percent supported other candidates or were undedcided.

Zogby called the results a "notable turnaround" from a July survey he did that showed Obama leading by 46-36.

"McCain made signifciant gains at Obama's expense among some of what had been Obama's strongest demographic groups," Zogby said.

His findings:

-Among voters aged 18-29, Obama lost 16 percent and McCain gained 20. Obama still leads, 49-38;

-Among women, McCain gained 10 percentage points. Obama now leads 43-38;

-Among independents, Obama lost an 11 point lead. They're now tied;

-Among Democrats, Obama's support dropped from 83 percent to 74 percent;

-Among Catholics, Obama lost the 11 point lead he had in July and now trails McCain by 15.

Zogby said Obama also lost ground among minorities.

He attributed Obama's erosion of support to McCain's criticisms of Obama as inexperienced in the wake of Obama's trip to Europe, the Middle East, Afghanistan and Iraq and to Obama's flips on some issues.

"The survey results come as Obama, fresh off what had been characterized as a triumphant tour of the Middle East and Europe, including a speech to 200,000 Germans in Berlin. That trip quickly became fodder for an aggressive response ad by the McCain campaign that questioned whether Obama's popularity around the world meant he was ready to lead the U.S.," Zogby said.

"The McCain camp seems to have turned lemons into lemonade. Huge crowds and mostly favorable press reviews of Obama's overseas trip have been trumped by McCain's attacks on Obama. Loss of support for Obama among young voters may also be due to his perceived reversals on issues they care about, such as the war and government eavesdropping."

The poll of 1,011 likely voters was conducted July 31-Aug 1 and had a margin of error of plus or minus 3.1 percentage points.

I'm sure the real reason that young people, females, blacks, other minorities, and Democrats in general are turning away from Obama is because they're filthy racists who don't believe in hope and support Big Oil in raping the economy.

[Inuhanyou]

I'd figure people think obama is being wishy washy with his views..such as offshore drilling..i personally don't think that...but people tend not to think before making choices or building opinions

That or the Mcain attacks on obama seem to be swaying people more than they should

[Tokoyami]

I doubt obama will let this continue.

[Willaien]

http://www.mcclatchydc.com/251/story/46457.html



I'm sure the real reason that young people, females, blacks, other minorities, and Democrats in general are turning away from Obama is because they're filthy racists who don't believe in hope and support Big Oil in raping the economy.

Right, because a company that does internet polls that shows a result within the margin of error of each other is a 'turning point'.

[Mael]

Another problem was that he pulled a massive amount of idealists (perhaps the WORST people you could have in politics) and when he realized that he had to compromise, those irrational idealists dropped off the radar. Granted I'm still voting for Barack but I can see why he'd lose some support. The bullshit is starting to pile on him, albeit unfairly, as people still see him with so much unnecessary skepticism, unrealistic expectations, or ignorant labeling.

[MS81]

I hope Obama got something up his sleeve to win Presidency.:(

[♠Mr.Nibbles♠]

The polls has been within Margin of error for days now and I really dont see the big turnaround they are talking about.:oh

[Ejaculation Storm]

http://www.mcclatchydc.com/251/story/46457.html



I'm sure the real reason that young people, females, blacks, other minorities, and Democrats in general are turning away from Obama is because they're filthy racists who don't believe in hope and support Big Oil in raping the economy.

Actually, I'll bet the reason they're "turning away" is because these statistics are from some insignificant internet poll.

[narutosimpson]

obama should challenge mccain to the 8 sided circle.

[Simulacrum]

Another problem was that he pulled a massive amount of idealists (perhaps the WORST people you could have in politics) and when he realized that he had to compromise, those irrational idealists dropped off the radar. Granted I'm still voting for Barack but I can see why he'd lose some support. The bullshit is starting to pile on him, albeit unfairly, as people still see him with so much unnecessary skepticism, unrealistic expectations, or ignorant labeling. Yeah, I remember the guys on conservative talk radio saying that Obama was the weakest Democrat candidate because of the particular voters he was drawing, and that the Dems would be suffering from buyer's remorse sooner or later.

[Radical Dreamer]

Heh, maybe now McCain should tell Obama his offer of debates is off. We wouldn't want the less-popular candidate to get more media attention, now would we? :awesome

[dreams lie]

It's well within the margin of error. I wonder if McCain is winning the pity vote, seeing how he was the underdog for a long long time.

[Cardboard Jewsuke]

I'm sure the real reason that young people, females, blacks, other minorities, and Democrats in general are turning away from Obama is because they're filthy racists who don't believe in hope and support Big Oil in raping the economy.

Yes, becuase thats the only reason someone wouldn't vote for obama...

[sadated_peon]

I'd figure people think obama is being wishy washy with his views..such as offshore drilling..i personally don't think that...but people tend not to think before making choices or building opinions

That or the Mcain attacks on obama seem to be swaying people more than they should

wtf is Zogby?

The polls show a constant increase for Obama
http://www.usatoday.com/news/politics/election2008/poll-tracker.htm

[Mael]

It's well within the margin of error. I wonder if McCain is winning the pity vote, seeing how he was the underdog for a long long time.

Hillary Clinton won NH because she cried and all the women there took pity on her with a "You go girl!" attitude. People are suckers like that.

McCain to me is a good guy but the media has swamped Obama. I think this poll lead is due to the continuation of doubt with Obama (Euro tour doesn't seem to be helping much [sorry European buddies]), conservatives pulling no punches, and the drop in idealism.

[Le Male]

I don't understand why the americans want an other republican as president. I don't say that's Bush = McCain but i don't see the difference. Can someone can tell me the difference ?

[Mael]

I don't understand why the americans want an other republican as president. I don't say that's Bush = McCain but i don't see the difference. Can someone can tell me the difference ?

Because a lot of Americans are superstitious and vulnerable to impressions. A lot are also idealist and will turn on someone at the drop of a dime. Look at Hillary Clinton supporters. The raging feminazis (not saying all Hillary supporters are them but a good chunk are) lost their chance and are still threatening to vote McCain.

Honestly a lot of people don't know what's good for them and so they see McCain as a man who still knows the old school American way and doesn't "cater to Euros" like Obama would. Conservatives specialize in playing off of fear and doubt so when Obama's lead slips, you can blame it on things like Fox News sowing the impression that Obama doesn't care about the average Joe and Jane. They make them think that McCain is still better in all ways and shapes. Liberals on the other hand are very idealistic and as stated before, tend to lose loyalty if something doesn't fly their way. Environmentalists will turn if the top priorities aren't climate change and the endangered woodland shrew or some animal that will go extinct regardless. Feminists will turn if Hillary doesn't become VP. Amnesty Intl. people will turn if the nominee won't go after Iran for human rights regardless of the geopolitical consequences.

A lot of liberals are too caught up in their own causes that they refuse to see the more pragmatic, realistic, and dare I say utilitarian viewpoints that people like Obama can think. He's losing a voter base because of the idealists. Meanwhile conservatives, like those damn NY Yankees with a 3-run deficit, refuse to quit and try to mount a comeback. We'll have to see where this goes but hopefully Democrats might prevail under the compromising Obama for a change. Otherwise the world will flip once more.

[Blaze of Glory]

Don't tell me you guys are taking this seriously :awesome

This article and it's OP are full of shit :awesome

:lmao

[drache]

ZOGBY?

Wow you are really desperate Sim, this is the same polling firm that has pretty much been consistenly an outilier and yet you cling to it because it's the first hint of positive news.

*shrug* Enjoy your delusions Sim, as I see it, it means you're not paying attention to the fact that there's more going on then the polls (and interestingly enough the status quo hasn't changed in over 2 months).

So please, don't take Zogby like you should (with a mountain of salt) but prepare to look foolish.

[fieryfalcon]

I honestly have no idea how most Americans make their decisions on who to vote for. It seems to be some mix of personality, pledges to give them government handouts, appearance, and name recognition with a dash of who has the best sound-bite thrown in. I always vote for the least communist candidate that I think will wreck the nation as little as possible...pretty hard to do in this race, incidently.

[HAL 9000]

Glancing at the guy's wikipedia page, he doesn't seem to be that reliable. Also:
wtf is Zogby?

The polls show a constant increase for Obama
http://www.usatoday.com/news/politics/election2008/poll-tracker.htm

Quoted for Truth.

[ZeroBlack]

http://www.latimes.com/news/politics/la-na-poll25-2008jun25,0,5763707.story

Oh please Simulacrum, try harder than Zogby please. In this article, Obama leads by 12 POINTS! Interesting how polls can differ eh Simul?